Monday, 19 October 2009

Idea for Nov: Long Japan Small Cap, short Yen

idea by Ronnie:

Long Japan small cap (Mothers index) + Short yen




- Japan equity is a big laggard

- companies are unprofitable due to strong yen

- money may chase this country/sector with other cyclicals having rich valuation

- despite no E, cash level is high with cheap PBV


Short yen
- adding some bang for the buck to the small cap exposure
- carry trade candidate to short, level too close to 2008 high, resistance seen at ~90
- govt can't allow further strength in currency which choke off exporter profits
- new administration may now be more willing to intervene

yen weakness will lead to mothers' strength

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